Smells like low tide: As the idiot-fest that is the Bish presidency continues to blunder along (see yesterday’s abysmal face-to-face with citizens and today’s abysmal performance before the WH yes corps), some observers are beginning to see parallels with the situation in 1994, when the GOP junta took over.
National Journal’s Charlie Cook has done an analysis of poll results 12 years ago versus today, and finds the Republicans in much the same boat as the Dems were back then when they got swamped by the tidal wave of change the nation thought it wanted.
Cook says the “micro” approach to analysis, which looks at race by race, favors the Repugs, but the “macro” approoach to forcasting, which looks at all races in light of the national political environment, “suggests that the GOP could get swamped by a tidal wave. By almost every relevant measurement, national polls indicate that Republicans are at least as bad off as Democrats were at this point in 1994, before suffering devastating mid-term losses,” writes Cook.
Here is some of his evidence, edited for brevity:
Heading into the spring of 1994, an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll found that 33 percent of Americans thought the country was headed in the right direction and 47 percent said it was on the wrong track, a 14-point advantage for pessimism. A new NBC/Journal poll, taken March 10-13, shows 26 percent “right direction” to 62 percent “wrong track,” a 36-point edge for pessimism.
At this stage of 1994, President Clinton’s job rating was 55 percent approval, 36 percent disapproval. In contrast, President Bush enjoyed only 37 percent approval — and 58 percent disapproval — in the latest NBC/ Journal poll. The March 10-12 CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll pegged Bush’s approval at 36 percent, with 60 percent disapproval.
In mid-March 1994, Clinton’s approval was at 50 percent and disapproval at 41 percent. In the final poll before the ‘94 election, Clinton’s approval and disapproval scores were tied at 46 percent — 10 points more positive than Bush’s current standing.
Twelve years ago, Congress’s approval rating was just 31 percent, compared with 58 percent disapproval. The most recent survey found 33 percent approval and 53 percent disapproval.
Incumbents are slightly more popular as a group than they were a dozen years ago. Then, 35 percent of voters were inclined to re-elect their House member; 47 percent preferred someone new. Now, re-election is the choice of 41 percent, while 48 percent want a new face.
When voters were asked which party they favored in the coming congressional election, the 1994 Democrats were running 5 points ahead, 34 percent to 29 percent. Now that survey shows Democrats have a 13-point lead, 50 percent to 37 percent.In the latest Gallup/USA Today poll, Democrats led by 16 points: 55 percent to 39 percent. The latest Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll had Democrats leading by 14, and the AP/Ipsos poll indicated that Democrats hold an 11-point advantage.
Cook notes that the only solace for the GOP in this year’s NBC/Journal polling is that both parties’ scores are lower than in 1994. Then, the GOP earned a positive rating from 42 percent of respondents and a negative one from 25 percent.
This year, the GOP’s ratings are 34 percent positive, 43 percent negative. For Democrats, the ratings were 40 percent positive, 28 percent negative in 1994; now they are 32 percent positive, 37 percent negative.
Twelve years ago, the floor underneath Democrats didn’t really begin sagging until summer. And the collapse didn’t come until August. Even then, few observers expected the GOP to gain the 40 seats it needed to win the House. And a micro analysis suggested that the Republicans couldn’t gain more than 30 to 35 seats. In the Senate, the Democrats’ troubles were far more apparent.
On Election Day, the GOP tidal wave turned out to be a lot stronger than anticipated, and a 52-seat House gain (counting two post-election switches) went into the record book.
Today’s national data forecast an anti-GOP tidal wave. Will it be large enough to wipe out structural advantages that benefit Republicans?
- Topic: News & Comment
The biggest hurdle facing House Dems is that electoral districts are all riggged so that like 90-plus percent of House seats are safe seats. Unless a whole lot of disgusted Republicans stay home on election day, which could happen, the tilt to the Dems will be on a very slim margin. (Which I’ll take.)
Three elements that are working in the Dems’ favor:
- Bush has lost the independent voters forever. His favorability among “decline to states,” as we call them here in California, is almost as lows as it as among Dems — in the 2o and 30 percent range in most polls. This is bound to depress independents’ votes for the GOP in Congress.
- There is more bad news coming for the GOP: the Abramoff and MZM bribery scandals are still brewing in Congress, and there’s more reverb coming at the Administration from the Plame scandals, Katrina and of course Iraq.
- If the first two of these are true then we can expect in-fighting and back-biting among the GOP caucuses over issues like immigration, the runaway spending and the deficit, just for starters. They’re also likely to turn on President Bush in order to separate themselves from his bad odor.
Eight months too early to gloat but sure looks good right now.
Flags, cymbals, and batons are going to sell this fall. Because the troops will be on parade, sweeping the Repubs. into reelection. We’re suckers for patriotism. Rove is disgusting and evil, but also very clever.
That was impressive the way Bush interrupted and shouted down the 87 year old Helen Thomas wasn’t it? A real MAN! He was only put off his game when his pants caught fire. Liar. Liar.