Minority retort: With the Republicans acting more and more like a circular firing squad over the Foley Fiasco and George Bush’s approval rating dropping back below 40 percent, the Dems are looking stronger in the midterms according to a Reuters/Zogby survey released today. The poll found that Democrats lead in 11 of 15 races for Republican incumbent congressional seats.

The Democratic edge includes leads in three of five open seats where well-known Republicans are on the way out – some to seek higher office and some because of scandal. The race for the Illinois seat occupied by GOP icon Henry Hyde, who is retiring after 22 years in the House, is led by Democrat Tammy Duckworth, who holds a 43 percent to 38 percent lead over Republican Peter Roskar.

‘The formula for Democratic victory: in each case where Democrats lead, the candidates are winning near or above 80% of their own party vote and they are leading among independents.’
— Pollster John Zogby

The series of telephone polls were conducted Sept. 25 to Oct. 2, and included at least 500 interviews in each of the 15 congressional districts tested. Each district poll carries a margin of error of +/– 4.5 percentage points.

The Republican is losing in the race to hold the Ohio seat held by Republican Bob Ney, the high-profile, once-powerful committee chairman who abandoned his reelection bid after recently pleading guilty to accepting money and gifts in an influence-peddling scandal. In that race, Democrat Zack Space leads Republican Joy Padgett, 45 percent to 36 percent. Padgett faces tough sledding in a state where the GOP has dominated for more than a decade but which has fallen on hard times because of scandals, including the Ney affair and another involving the administration of Gov. Bob Taft.

In Connecticut, moderate Republican Christopher Shays, who has worked hard to distance himself from the White House and the unpopular war in Iraq, still faces an uphill reelection battle. Right now, he trails Democratic challenger Diane Ferrell, 46 percent to 41 percent. Another 11 percent said they are unsure for whom to vote in that race.

While Iowa Republican Jim Nussle appears to be leaving his seat in safe GOP hands as he departs to run for governor, the same cannot be said for the Republican House seat of Bob Beauprez, who is leaving Washington to run for governor of Colorado. In that suburban Denver district, Democrat Ed Perlmutter leads Republican Rick O’Donnell, 45 percent to 34 percent.

The Democratic edge is such that their candidates lead in seven of the nine House districts that contain Republican advantages in party identification. In the other six House races included in the Reuters/Zogby package of surveys, Democrats lead in four.

In other reliably GOP districts where incumbent Republicans are running for re-election, the Reuters/Zogby package of polling shows that this year they are trailing significantly. In usually conservative Indiana, Republican incumbent Mike Sodrel trails Democratic challenger Baron Hill, 46 percent to 38 percent. Just 39 percent said Sodrel deserves to be re-elected, while 45 percent in Indiana’s 9th District said it is time for someone new. In Indiana’s 2nd District, another Republican faces serious trouble: Incumbent Chris Chocola trails Democratic challenger Joe Donnelly, 49 percent to 39 percent.

The situation is much the same in the mountains of western North Carolina, where Republican-leaning voters in the 11th District give Democratic challenger Heath Shuler a 51 percent to 40 percent edge over eight-term incumbent Charles Taylor. Two years ago, Taylor won reelection with 55 percent of the vote.