2008 Senate Races: 12 Dem Seats Vs. 21 GOP Seats Up for Grabs

Bob Geiger has put together this list of U.S. Senate candidates up for reelection in 2008. My very early handicapping is on the right:

Democrats (12) Handicap
Max Baucus (D-MT) Vulnerable:Isn’t Baucus retiring? If so, a Republican could take it.
Joseph Biden (D-DE) Safe Dem: Even if Biden drops out to campaign for president full time.
Richard Durbin (D-IL) Safe Dem.
Tom Harkin (D-IA) Safe Dem.
Tim Johnson (D-SD) Vulnerable: Unless the senator makes a full recovery.
John Kerry (D-MA) Safe Dem. Kerry won’t give up his seat even if he runs for president again.
Mary Landrieu (D-LA) Vulnerable: As Bob Geiger pointed out, Landrieu’s base may have been expatriated from Louisiana by Katrina.
Frank Lautenberg (D-NJ) Vulnerable: Because Jersey was so weird this year. (Lautenberg might retire again.)
Carl Levin (D-MI) Safe Dem.
Mark Pryor (D-AR) Vulnerable:It’s Arkansas.
Jack Reed (D-RI) Safe Dem.
Jay Rockefeller (D-WV) Safe Dem.

Safe Dems: 7 – Vulnerable: 5

Republicans (21) Handicap
Lamar Alexander (R-TN) Vulnerable: He just is.
Wayne Allard (R-CO) Vulnerable: He’s a rank ideologue and Colorado is in play for Dems.
Saxby Chambliss (R-GA) Safe GOP.
Thad Cochran (R-MS) Safe GOP.
Norm Coleman (R-MN) Vulnerable: Al Franken could take him out, as could any decent candidate.
Susan Collins (R-ME) Safe GOP.
John Cornyn (R-TX) Safe GOP: It’s Texas.
Larry Craig (R-ID) Safe GOP: Despite gay rumors.
Elizabeth Dole (R-NC) Safe GOP: John Edwards should run against Liddy, but he is running for President of Never Gonna Happen instead.
Pete Domenici (R-NM) Safe GOP.
Michael Enzi (R-WY) Safe: Admittedly, Enzi is a cipher to me, but it’s Wyoming.
Lindsey Graham (R-SC) Safe GOP: Even if Graham becomes McCain’s running mate.
Chuck Hagel (R-NE) Safe: Even if Hagel runs for president.
James Inhofe (R-OK) Safe GOP: And more’s the pity.
Mitch McConnell (R-KY) Safe GOP.
Pat Roberts (R-KS) Safe GOP.
Jeff Sessions (R-AL) Safe GOP.
Gordon Smith (R-OR) Vulnerable: Smith’s come-to-Jesus on the war was a smart move.
Ted Stevens (R-AK) Safe GOP.
John Sununu (R-NH) Vulnerable: It’s New Hampshire, and John Jr. won by a sliver last time.
John Warner (R-VA) Safe GOP: Even though Warner will be 80 in February.

Safe GOP: 15 – Vulnerable: 6

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