SurveyUSA via Pollster:

Giuliani is the most socially liberal Republican in the race so California is his to lose.

Among 741 likely Democratic primary voters in California asked to choose between three candidates, Sen. Hillary Clinton leads Sen. Barack Obama (49 percent to 30 percent) in a statewide primary, former Sen. John Edwards trails at 5 percent (conducted 12/14 through 12/16).

On the GOP side, Mike (”God Is My Campaign Manager”) Huckabee is doing surprisingly well in the land of secular hedonism:

Among 497 likely Republican primary voters in California asked to choose between five candidates, former Mayor Rudy Giuliani leads former Gov. Mike Huckabee (28 percent to 20 percent) in a statewide primary; former Gov. Mitt Romney trails at 16 percent, Sen. John McCain at 14 percent, former Sen. Fred Thompson at 13 percent (conducted 12/14 through 12/16).

Californians aren’t yet focused on the primary election on Feb. 5 — it’s the holidays and we’re used to having national primaries in the summer. Voters here will likely tune in after results from Iowa and New Hampshire show who’s got game. They will tend to dismiss the results in culturally dissonant South Carolina but will be keenly interested in who wins in Florida on Jan. 29

Giuliani is the most socially liberal Republican in the race so California is his to lose. Huckabee’s numbers in this poll are probably inflated from the combined factors of his positive headlines and the lack of serious focus by voters mentioned above. California Republicans tend to prefer secular fiscal conservatives (think Reagan and Schwarzenegger) so interest in Huckabee could fade as they learn more about his extremist religious views and record of raising taxes.

Even if Romney does well in January, it’s hard to see him gaining traction in California. The state has a sizable Mormon population that has been here since the Gold Rush in 1848 so it isn’t so much Romney’s religion that lacks appeal, it’s more about the fact that that Californians know a fake when they see one.

Giuliani’s principal threat next month could be McCain who has successfully rebuilt his campaign and received endorsements last week from key newspapers as well as the Republicans’ favorite former Democrat, Sen. Joe Lieberman.