More signs that Republicans are giving a pass to Rudy and Mitt and reverting to the GOP primogenitor status quo, which means it may be John McCain’s turn, after all. In New Hampshire, where McCain beat George Bush by 20 points in 2000, American Research Group’s tied with Romney:

Losing New Hampshire to McCain would be big blow for Romney, who was governor of neighboring Massachusetts.

McCain rebounded from a 25 percentage point deficit three weeks ago to tie Romney in American Research Group’s latest New Hampshire poll with 26 percent apiece. McCain also gained on Romney in a statewide Gallup Poll for USA Today, pulling within 7 percentage points of Romney. Romney led McCain 34 to 27 percent in that survey.

Losing New Hampshire to McCain would be big blow for Romney, who was governor of neighboring Massachusetts and so is familiar to the locals — whereas by a weird political calculus, all McCain has to do is come in second to “win” there.

In Iowa, McCain is running second to Huckabee, who has 28 percent support to McCain’s 20 percent. Romney is third with 17 percent, and Guiliani has 13 percent. (Eleven percent are still undecided.) McCain could “win” Iowa too if he comes in second.

McCain needs to come in second in South Carolina behind Huckabee, too, in order to winnow Romney out of the pack. But he’s in fourth place there now with 11 percent, according to a CBS poll released Thursday. Ahead of him are Huckabee with 28 percent, Romney 20 percent and Giuliani 12 percent.