Poll: California Is Still Clinton Country, Rudy Falls to Third Behind McCain in Statistical Tie with Huckabee

Clinton Leads Obama By 31 Points in Bay Area, the State’s Democratic Stronghold — And By 21 Points in Vote-Rich L.A.

The Clintons have always been popular in California and, according to a new poll from the Los Angeles Times, Politico.com and CNN, that is as true now, with three weeks to go before the Feb. 5 primary, as it has ever been:

Clinton led Obama 47 percent-31 percent among voters judged likely to cast ballots in California. As she did in New Hampshire, where she eked out a win over Obama last Tuesday, Clinton held onto a sturdy margin among Democrats, 47 percent-32 percent. But the New York senator also opened a strong lead — 52 percent-29 percent — among independents, who will be allowed to vote in the Democratic primary … Women supported her over Illinois Sen. Obama by 50 percent-30 percent; men by a slightly smaller 46 percent-32 percent.

In the Bay Area, the most concentrated Democratic area in the state, Clinton led by a 31-point margin, which narrowed to 22 points in the state’s second Democratic bulwark, the Los Angeles area.

On the GOP side, Rudolph Giuliani, the most liberal of the Republican candidates, appears to have lost the comfortable lead he enjoyed for most of the past year:

The Republican race is, at this stage, far more uncertain. Among likely voters, Arizona Sen. McCain was ahead at 20 percent, with Mitt Romney at 16 percent, Rudolph W. Giuliani at 14 percent and Mike Huckabee at 13 percent. The results for all four were within the poll’s margin of error.

Republican voters remain a bit squishy: Six in ten said they might change their mind over the next few weeks. Among Democrats, the number was four in ten.


  • regroce
    January 14, 2008 - 6:16 pm | Permalink

    I’m very disappointed in Pensito Review to include mention of this poll without detailing a crucial error it contained.

    The poll by LA Times, CNN and politico.com only mentioned two democratic candidates. It omitted Kucinich and Edwards from polling questions, even though both are still in the election, and both have declared they will remain throughout. The presence of Edwards in both primaries so far, taking 18 electoral votes, makes his omission seem to be a slander against him.

    YET – it is somewho okay to leave Giuliani, who hasn’t hit double-digits yet in any primary and in very few polls, in this poll?

    This seems to be some media bias, which I’m disappointed to see make its way on to pensitoreview.com.

  • January 14, 2008 - 7:25 pm | Permalink

    Good point, Regrace. I did omit the Edwards number. His support is 10 percent statewide. I’m in double-trouble for the omission because my colleague Trish is supporting Edwards.

    As to Kucinich, he is not mentioned in the poll, and that is wrong.

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