Obama Campaign Is Right: Delegate Race Is Theirs to Lose

There is no doubt that Barack Obama has what the elder George Bush called “Big Mo’.” In a conference call early today, his campaign manager, Pavid Plouffe, told reporters that by their reckoning:
If current trends hold, Clinton needs to win the four remaining big states in order to stay even in the delegate race.

Obama now leads Clinton by 136 pledged delegates. Because Democrats split primary and caucus votes proportionally, Clinton would have to win the remaining contests in “blowout form” to pull even with Obama, Plouffe argued.

That includes the big showdowns on March 4 in Texas and Ohio, where Plouffe said Clinton would have to win by well over 20 points to significantly close the gap.

“We see absolutely no evidence in any of the contests remaining that that would be the case,” he said. “The math is the math.”

Following Obama’s string of victories since the weekend, Plouffe said, “We believe that we couldn’t be in a stronger position.”

A lot of people, notably my colleague Trish and, especially, Air America talkshow host Randi Rhodes, are upset at the prospect that even if Obama wins the regular delegate count, Clinton could take the nomination by having more superdelegates.

But if the trends hold, Obama will continue to win by large margins, roughly 2 to 1, while Clinton’s wins will remain narrower, roughly 55 percent to 45 percent.

Plouffe may be overstating a bit what it would take for Clinton to remain even, however. She could still win with slim majorities in Wisconsin (Feb. 19) and the four remaining big states — Ohio and Texas (March 4), Pennsylvania (April 22) and North Carolina (May 6), which would give her the momentum to win narrowly in a few small rural states like Wyoming (March 8), Guam (May 9) and Montana and South Dakota (May 20).

This would leave Obama with lopsided wins in small states including Hawaii (his home state, Feb. 19), Rhode Island (March 4), Mississippi (March 8), Kentucky and Oregon (May 20) and Puerto Rico (June 7).

Trends suggest otherwise, however. If Clinton does not win both Ohio (161 delegates) and Texas (228 delegates) on March 4, it will be harder for her to win Pennsylvania (158 delegates) and North Carolina (115 delegates).

She has weaknesses in both of the latter. If the Philadelphia suburbs trend with their Delmarva neighbors instead of New Jerseyites, she might not be able to make up the difference in Pittsburgh and the central region. North Carolina could well tally up more like Virginia than Tennessee. Tar Heel Democratic demographics skew toward Obama. African-Americans comprise roughly 30 percent of the state, and college-educated professionals dominate in its two largest metro areas, Charlotte and Raleigh.

For Clinton, it appears that it all comes down to Ohio and and Texas in three weeks. Otherwise, the contest is Obama’s to lose.

3 Responses »

  1. Jubilato February 13, 2008 @ 7:37 pm

    Tar Heel. Two words. Everytime Tar Heel is spelled as one word, a kitten dies.

  2. Jon February 14, 2008 @ 7:54 am

    Sorry, as an expat Tar Heel, and kittenophile, I should know better.

  3. Janet Reno March 8, 2008 @ 1:12 pm

    Obama’s efforts to connect to the Republican Party, specifically Bush, and Dick Chaney, of the Halliburton Company, dates back to the Presidents Grandfather, Prescott Bush, and indeed Chaney was once an executive officer of Halliburton.

    The American military pounds Iraq with Artillary, bombs, and the like, destroying large sections of cities, and infra-structures, then Halliburton comes in to rebuild. Halliburton and Halliburton associated companies have raked in ten’s of billions.

    Obama is just like the BIG HALIBURTAN. Haliburton has contracted to build detention centers in the U.S. similiar to the one in Quantanammo Bay, Cuba. Halliburton does nothing to earn the Two Dollars for each meal an American Serviceman in Iraq eats.

    http://www.halliburtonwatch.org/

    Halliburton was scheduled to take control of the Dubai Ports in The United Arab Emiirate. The deal was canceled when Bush was unable to affect the transfer of the American Ports.

    Now we see what some might suspect as similiar financial escapading from the Democrats.

    Two years ago, Iraq’s Ministry of Electricity gave a $50 million contract to a start-up security company – Companion- owned by now-indicted businessman (TONY REZKO) Tony Rezko and a onetime Chicago cop, Daniel T. Frawley, to train Iraqi power-plant guards in the United States. An Iraqi leadership change left the deal in limbo. Now the company, Companion Security, is working to revive its contract.
    Involved along with Antoin “Tony” Rezco, long time friend and neighbor of Democratic Presidential hopeful Barack Obama, and former cop Daniel T. Frawley, is Aiham Alsammarae. Alsammarae was accused of financial corruption by Iraqi authorities and jailed in Iraq last year before escaping and returning here.

    LIKE FATHER LIKE SON –
    Recently, Obama’s campaign staff have been vetted by the IRS to disclose his connection to the criminal money generating underworld. Besides, his connections to the REZCO MAFIA types, his up-coming tax fraud charges — Obama needs to disclose why he is a MUSLIM “PATWANG-FWEEE” and disclose Obama’s MUSLIM Farrakhan mob connection to Chicago’s Trinity United Church of Christ. Its minister, and Obama’s spiritual adviser, is the Rev. Jeremiah A. Wright Jr. In 1982, the church launched Trumpet Newsmagazine; Wright’s daughters serve as publisher and executive editor. Every year, the magazine makes awards in various categories. Last year, it gave the Dr. Jeremiah A. Wright Jr. Trumpeter Award to a man it said “truly epitomized greatness.” That man is Louis Farrakhan. Farrakhan and Chicago’s Trinity United Church are trumpeting Barack Obama AKA Barack Hussein Obama as the second coming of the messiah. Obama should stop suppoting our intervention in IRAQ. It’s time to introduce this false, fake Xerox – X box Obama and invite the self-indicting thief plagiarizing pipsqueke “GLORK” Xerox – X box to meet the Buffalo “GAZOWNT-GAZIKKA” Police Department Buffalo Creek. He is MAD!!! –

    OBAM YOU’RE NO JFK —

    “GLORK” Obama looks like Alfred E. Newman: “Tales Calculated To Drive You.” He is a MUSLIM “Glork” He’s MAD!!! Alfred E. Neuman is the fictional mascot of Mad. The face had drifted through American pictography for decades before being claimed by Mad editor Harvey Kurtzman after he spotted it on the bulletin board in the office of Ballantine Books editor Bernard Shir-Cliff, later a contributor to various magazines created by Kurtzman.
    Obama needs to disclose why he is a MUSLIM “PATWANG-FWEEE” and stop suppoting our intervention in IRAQ. It’s time to introduce this false, fake “GLORK” Xerox – X box Obama and invite the self-indicting thief plagiarizing pipsqueke Xerox – X box to meet the Buffalo “GAZOWNT-GAZIKKA” Police Department Buffalo Creek.

    Michelle Obama should be ashamed.

    “GLORK” Michelle Obama should be ashamed of her separatist-racist connection to Farrakhan and Chicago’s Trinity United Church trumpeting Barack Obama AKA Barack Hussein Obama as the second coming of the messiah. If Michelle Obama new what her husband — the Hope-A-Dope, Fonster Monster — Barack Obama AKA Barack Hussein Obama did in Harlem, she would wash her wide-open, Hus-suey loving MUSILM mouth out, with twenty-four (24) mule-team double-cross X-boX-BorraX. He is a MUSLIM “Glork” It’s time to introduce this false, fake “GLORK” Xerox – X box Obama and invite the self-indicting thief plagiarizing pipsqueke Xerox – X box to meet the Buffalo “GAZOWNT-GAZIKKA” Police Department Buffalo Creek. He’s MAD!!!

    http://www.halliburtonwatch.org/

    Ms. Reno: It is our policy not to allow lies to go unanswered. Barack Obama is not a Muslim.
    - Editors

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