Pensito Review: Politics and Media Pensito Review: Politics and Media
January 8, 2009
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Polling Shows Obama Still Leading Clinton

A daily poll shows Obama is taking some popularity hits over his “people are bitter” comments but not as much as he did over the Rev. Wright black liberation theology ordeal. Rasmussen today reports no big upheavals.

In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, Obama leads Clinton 48% to 44%. While statistical noise has created daily fluctuations, this race has remained quite stable for the past month or so. A look at the overall trends shows Obama enjoying a modest but consistent advantage.

Part of the reason Obama isn’t going down in flames is because even though the truth hurts, it’s hard to argue with what he said.

Most Americans agree with Obama’s statement that “People are fed up. They’re angry and they’re frustrated and they’re bitter, and they want to see a change in Washington.”

New polling data released this morning shows that 56% of voters nationwide disagree with Obama’s controversial comment that people in small towns “cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren’t like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations.” Partisan and ideological perceptions suggest that Obama’s comments may have more impact on the General Election than the Primaries…

The data also suggests that the Obama campaign was shrewd to try and focus attention on the portion of the comments about people being bitter. Most Americans agree with Obama’s statement that “People are fed up. They’re angry and they’re frustrated and they’re bitter, and they want to see a change in Washington.” Following the initial weekend furor over the remarks, Rasmussen Markets data still gives Obama an 82.4 % chance of winning the Democratic nomination.

More interesting are the favorability ratings. While Obama’s “unfavorable” numbers have risen to 50%, they still aren’t at their all-time high level of 52%, posted on March 27 in the aftermath of the Rev. Wright controversy.

Clinton’s unfavorable numbers, in contrast, have been stuck in the low 50s for weeks and her efforts to paint Obama, who was raised by a single mom, as an anti-hunting, out of touch elitist aren’t helping lift her up. Maybe voters are weighing her words against that figure from her tax return: $109 million. In any case, today her unfavorable number is 51%. The last time it was any lower was March 13, at 50%.

McCain, meanwhile, continues to slip under the radar screen. Everyone (54%) thinks he’s a fine old fellow.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows John McCain leading Barack Obama, 49% to 42%. The presumptive Republican nominee also leads Hillary Clinton 47% to 43%.

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