Congress, News, Polls

Polls: N.C. Voters Trend toward Clinton, But It’s Unlikely She’ll Close the Gap – Indiana Looks Tight

The punditosphere is correct that even if Hillary Clinton wins every primary between now and June 3, she won’t accrue enough delegates to win the nomination. Still, in the unlikely event she were to win both the North Carolina and Indiana primaries tomorrow, it could shake up the race again:

A new USA Today poll out Monday suggested that Obama, vowing to become America’s first black president, had been damaged by the fallout of racially tinged remarks by his former pastor Jeremiah Wright.

For the first time in three months, the former first lady led her rival in the survey of national Democrats, by seven percentage points. Two weeks ago before the latest storm over Wright hit, Obama was up 10 points.

A new CBS/New York Times poll on Sunday however suggested Obama had started to recover from the Wright furor, giving him an 11-point lead over Republican candidate McCain, 51-40.

Last Tuesday, that hypothetical matchup had been tied. Clinton led McCain in the same poll by 12 points.

Another poll, by Suffolk University in Indiana, showed the New York senator leading Obama in the state by six points 49 percent to 43 percent…

Obama still led in another battleground, North Carolina, where Clinton and her husband former president Bill Clinton have been campaigning feverishly.

A Zogby tracking survey had the Illinois senator up by eight in the state, much lower than the 20 point lead he had enjoyed in some polls just weeks ago. Zogby had the race in Indiana a mathematical tie.

Another source reports that the Zogby poll gives Obama a sizable lead in North Carolina but shows his numbers wobbling, along with a 5 point uptick for Clinton:

  • Apr 30 – May 1: Obama – 50 percent, Clinton – 34 percent
  • May 1 – May 2: Obama – 46 percent, Clinton – 37 percent
  • May 2 – May 3: Obama – 48 percent, Clinton – 39 percent

The Zogby numbers show roughly 10 percent of N.C. voters are undecided. In recent primaries, undecided voters have mostly broken for Clinton.

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