From the new Los Angeles Times poll:
The big names in California politics are all Democrats. There is no Republican other than Schwarzenegger with statewide appeal who could help deliver California to McCain in November. If the governor can’t do it, it is exceedingly unlikely that it can be done.

Overall, [Barack] Obama led [John] McCain 47 percent to 40 percent among registered voters, while [Hillary] Clinton led McCain 43 percent to 40 percent.

McCain has insisted that he will compete to win California in the fall. But California has gone to the Democrat in each of the last four presidential elections. Most of the state’s political professionals consider it to be reliably Democratic — and too expensive to prompt a full-throated effort by a Republican candidate who could amass electoral votes more cheaply elsewhere.

Clinton remains popular in California, but her supporters here are ready to support Obama:

Gregory Sanders, a Democrat from West Hollywood, said he “avidly” supported Clinton in the primary but would now back Obama.

“I accept that she lost the nomination,” he said in a follow-up interview, adding that he still has “reservations” about Obama because of the controversial comments made by his former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright.

Another bad omen for McCain in the poll is the fact that Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger’s job approval is sinking again — from 60 percent in January to 43 percent now. (It was in the low 30s at the end of the governor’s disastrous first term.) Unlike his earlier troubles with voters, when he was loathed by Democrats and independents, this time the governor appears to be losing support among members of his own party:

Republicans, too, were negative, with 73 percent saying the state was on the wrong track and [only] 52 percent approving of Schwarzenegger’s tenure. The governor has clashed repeatedly with fellow Republicans on a range of policy issues.

The big names in California politics are all Democrats — the senators, Dianne Feinstein and Barbara Boxer, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and former Gov. Jerry Brown. There is no Republican other than Schwarzenegger with statewide appeal who could help deliver California to McCain in November. If the governor can’t do it, it is exceedingly unlikely that it can be done.

Still, let’s hope the gap between Obama and McCain widens into double digits and stays there. In 2004, John Kerry beat Bush by 10 percentage points, 54 percent to 44 percent. Obama should be able do at least that well.