In an interview posted on the website of the London Telegraph last week, John Bolton, one of the most belligerent of the neocon war hawks, predicted that Israel will attack Iran sometime after the U.S. presidential elections November 4 and January 21, the day George Bush and Dick Cheney leave office.
“An Obama victory would rule out military action by the Israelis because they would fear the consequences given the approach Obama has taken to foreign policy.”
– Bolton
Bombing Iran has long been a neocon objective. Last February, New Yorker reporter revealed that Dick Cheney had secret plans for creating an “open confrontation” with Iran and that the Pentagon was ready to start bombing within 24 hours of a signal from the White House. One supposedly non-neocon pol who was on board then was John McCain. During a campaign stop in South Carolina in April 2007, McCain made a joke of bombing Iran by singing “Bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb Iran” to the tune of the Beach Boys song, “Barbara Ann.”

But Bolton now believes Bush and his senior aides have succumbed to political reality and will not pursue the attack using U.S. forces. According to the Telegraph, Bolton said, “It’s clear that the administration has essentially given up that possibility… I don’t think it’s serious any more. If you had asked me a year ago I would have said I thought it was a real possibility. I just don’t think it’s in the cards.”

About his suggested timeframe of November to January, Bolton said, “The Israelis have one eye on the calendar because of the pace at which the Iranians are proceeding both to develop their nuclear weapons capability and to do things like increase their defenses by buying new Russian anti-aircraft systems and further harden the nuclear installations.

“They’re also obviously looking at the American election calendar. My judgment is they would not want to do anything before our election because there’s no telling what impact it could have on the election.”

Bolton suggests that Israel will attack Iran on Bush’s watch because they fear that if Barack Obama is elected, he would stand in the way of such of an attack, because Obama has signaled he would seek negotiations with Iran before bombing. “An Obama victory would rule out military action by the Israelis because they would fear the consequences given the approach Obama has taken to foreign policy,” he said.

About the approach of John McCain, Bolton said, “With McCain they might still be looking at a delay. Given that time is on Iran’s side, I think the argument for military action is sooner rather than later absent some other development.” Bolton is a McCain supporter.

Bush named Bolton as his UN ambassador as a recess appointment in 2005, but he only served a year because Democrats in the Senate refused to confirm him.