Writing at Open Left, Mike Lux, co-founder and CEO of Progressive Strategies, has been reading my mind:

It’s no accident that the only two Democrats to win the Presidency since 1968 were governors who were from small states, far away from DC, unaffected by the Culture of Caution that tends to grip Democrats on Capitol Hill…

My hope was that Obama would be more like JFK in that although he was a Senator, he was enough of an outsider and confident enough in himself that he was not infected by the Culture of Caution. Much of the time in the campaign he has shown that kind of confidence and strength. But I fear that, at least for the moment, the Capitol Hill Culture of Caution has taken hold of the campaign…

Instead of having the confidence to win the bigger argument on investing in alternative energy production and conservation, they make the shift on drilling. Instead of pushing back firmly and assertively on the race card accusation, they have the campaign’s reply be “No, we’re not playing the race card.” Instead of having the confidence to really negotiate with McCain on debate formats, they fell into the we’ll-just-do-what-candidates-have-always-done formats. Instead of having the confidence to lay out some of his good new ideas on foreign policy that are clearly different from the Bush doctrine in his widely watched Berlin speech, he stuck to cautious generalities. Instead of having the confidence to back up his strong and effective primary rhetoric on FISA and NAFTA, he cautiously moved towards the conventional wisdom.

I am haunted by this because of my past experience with Capitol Hill-shaped “wisdom” around elections- being told by my brilliant young friend David Plouffe, who was running the DCCC in 1998 [and who is now Obama's campaign manager], that the PFAW/MoveOn.org time to move on regarding impeachment campaign was a huge mistake, when in fact it was the theme that ended up turning the tide on congressional elections in our favor that year; being told by Gore’s people in 2000 that if they just didn’t respond to the NRA’s attacks on the gun issue, the issue wouldn’t have an impact; being told by Gephardt’s top aides in 2002 that the only way to win the congressional elections that fall was to “take the war off the table” so that Democrats could get on with other issues; being told by Kerry’s team in 2004 that if they just ignored the Swift Boaters, they wouldn’t get any attention.

Caution kills when it comes to national elections, and the caution of my friends in Obamaland is hurting him. It’s why despite the good coverage of the overseas trip and one gaffe after another by McCain, Obama is drifting down in the polls. And in an election where it is very likely we will lose some older blue collar white voters a Democrat would normally get, caution will kill us in the fall by dampening the enthusiasm Obama has sparked among young voters and new voters in the primary.

And:

I feel the tightness in my friends in Obamaland: they know that all the dynamics favor the Democrats, that McCain is a weak, uninspiring candidate running a weak, uninspired campaign. They know they should be winning this thing, and they are playing not to lose, which is the worst thing you can do in Presidential politics. The Obama team at the top hasn’t been good at getting help or letting people in the door, because they feel sure that if they stay in control of the message, they will win. But, to my wonderful friends on the inside of the campaign, it’s time to loosen the reins a little, not be so tight and careful and cautious, because you are in real danger with the course you are on.

It’s to Obama’s credit that he beat the Clinton machine, albeit marginally and after too many months of rope-a-dope. Still, Obama had to know that beating Hillary would be the easy part, which is why it is alarming today, as he heads off for vacation in Hawaii, that the 2008 campaign is quickly devolving into a closer repeat of 2004 than anyone ever imagined.
While staying above the fray is the gentlemanly thing to do, it does not work, and it is not “change.”
The way of Rove is to keep the public from focusing on the real issues by creating diversions that the media can’t resist — like the “Celeb” comparisons of Obama to Paris and Britney and bromides like offshore drilling. Their objective is to keep the projected vote as close to even as possible in the battleground states. As long as the margin is slim, they can steal a state this November the way they took Ohio in 2004 and Florida in 2000.

How can Obama stop them? A supporter in the crowd once shouted to Harry Truman, “Give ‘em hell, Harry.” Truman replied, “I just tell the truth, and they think it’s hell.” It’s time to take the gloves off, to stop the rope-a-dope dance with McCain and give him and his party the hell they deserve.

It is sad but true that the only thing rightwingers understand is having undeniable truth rubbed in their faces and the facts crammed down their throats. This is a sorry state of affairs, but it is how they have chosen to play the game. The negativity required to fight them makes a lot of liberals uncomfortable. But keep in mind what is at stake: McCain will invade Iran. He will keep our troops in Iraq for 10 more years. He will appoint more rightwing activist judges to the Supreme Court.

McCain’s personal profile is full of targets for attack. Like Bush, he is something of an aristocratic dunce. He is the son and grandson of admirals. Despite graduating fifth from the bottom in his class at the naval academy, he was given a cushy wartime assignment as a fighter pilot. During his service, no less than five jets under his command were totaled, including the one in which he was shot down over Vietnam.

After he returned home from Vietnam, he abandoned his first wife, the one who waited for him and raised his kids while he was a prisoner of war, after she had a debilitating accident. He left her for a much younger woman, who happened to have $100 million — an act for which the Republican saints Ronnie and Nancy Reagan, who were friends of the first wife, never forgave him. His Senate career was marred early on by scandal and more recently by egregious flipflopping on key issues. On top of all that, John McCain is a simply dreadful candidate. He should have been beaten by now.

While staying above the fray is the gentlemanly thing to do, it does not work, and it is not “change.”