Each hour closer to the April 30 deadline for Charlie Crist to switch ‘em if he’s got ‘em (parties, that is) brings more scenario-spinning in Florida. The currently Republican governor was lagging in polls behind former state House Speaker Marco Rubio in the Republican primary. Democrat Kendall Meek, who will face either the winner of the primary, or both men if Crist bails on the GOP, is a mostly forgotten opponent.

Early speculation was that if anyone was courting a third party it was Rubio, who is so cozy with the Tea Party that he might as well misspell a sign and quote Thomas Jefferson out of context. But after Crist grew a pair and vetoed a bill put together by a Jeb Bush lackey and recent lobbyist for a standardized testing company that would gut public education in Florida, a surge in his poll numbers makes it more likely that he will jump ship.

The bill required standardized testing for every student and subject in the K-12 system (before you ask, yes, that included kindergartners in such areas as “Sharing,” and special ed students with individualized curricula), with teacher pay based on the outcomes. Teachers whose kids did poorly on the tests would have their salaries reduced, and if they did poorly for two out of five years, their certifications would be revoked. When questions such as, “How do you get the teachers to keep working after you cut their pay in half?” or “How do you find enough teachers when you’ve revoked the certifications of most Florida education majors?” arose, the answer was that these details could be worked out through 2014. The bill was passed at 3 a.m. by the Republican-led state senate, with no amendments from Democrats allowed. In the days it awaited the governor’s signature, Crist reported his staff read 69,000 of the 150,000 messages received, and had so far found 3,000 in favor of the legislation. He had little choice but to veto.

And still Republicans refused to entertain the suggestion that the bill stunk. No, they insisted, Charlie didn’t sign it because he knew he would gain points over Rubio, who supported it. You’ll never hear me defend Charlie Crist’s integrity but for once I don’t think it matters if he was pandering. What matters is this ridiculous Jeb Bush-written initiative failed.

And that leaves everyone wondering about Charlie. Specifically, here’s what they’re wondering.

• Charlie’s GOP opponent, Marco Rubio, is the subject of a “primary investigation” by the IRS in the Republican Party of Florida credit card scandal. Rubio did not report as income items charged to his RPOF American Express card, including groceries and repairs to the family minivan. He charged meals to the card while accepting taxpayer subsidies for same during his time as House Speaker, and also double-billed taxpayers and the RPOF for plane tickets for himself and his family. The timing of a possible Rubio indictment is critical. If it happens before the primary, Crist beats him and sails on to victory over Meek. If Rubio sinks in the mud after the primary but Crist is running NPA, Crist likely wins over both. If Rubio beats Crist in the primary, then is dragged under before the general, Meek is the next senator from Florida.
• Republicans, especially friends of Jeb Bush, are lining up behind Rubio. Presidential front-runner and Mormon Mitt Romney, House Whip Rep. Eric Cantor, National Republican Senatorial Committee Chair Sen. John Cornyn, and a slew of party insiders are urging Crist to either give up now and support Rubio or accept defeat in the primary as a Republican, and clear the way for Rubio to beat Meek. They are also threatening to cut off the money supply, splitting Crist donors from the rest of the GOP and leaving a big question of where Crist’s financing will come from if he runs as an independent, and how much damage it will do to the party financially and otherwise if Crist’s backers are alienated.
• And then there’s Charlie’s place-holder in the Senate, George LeMieux. Crist picked LeMieux to fill the seat vacated when Sen. Mel Martinez opted to spend more time with his family. LeMieux was seen as a loyal Crist crony who would keep a low profile and hold the spot until Charlie was sent by the people to fill it. Since he’s been in Washington, holding up Obama appointments to cabinet-level positions and voting against health care reform, LeMieux found that he likes it, and is floating trial balloons about running against Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson in 2012. If Crist goes rogue, who does LeMieux support? His benefactor Crist, or the Republican party? LeMieux is urging Charlie to remain Republican, which gives us some indication of where his eventual “loyalty” will fall. But if Crist is defeated by Rubio as a Republican, or simply yields to him and remains in the party, he is widely expected to run against Nelson himself in 2012. Would Crist and LeMieux share a primary race in that election?

Florida will likely have to wait a few more days to find out whether Crist stays in the Republican primary. But knowing that he polls higher without a party affiliation should give Republicans outside the state something to think about in this election year.