Carson May Be Leading Among Actual Voters


Ben Carson’s lead, followed by Marco Rubio at 17% and Donald Trump at 15%, in a new Monkey Cage poll in Iowa that finds that non-voters may be driving Donald Trump’s popularity. “To build a sample, we began with the list of registered voters in Iowa and stratified our sample by factors like age and sex. Other pollsters have done something similar. However, what we did — but other have not — is stratify the sample based on another factor: Whether or not people had voted in at least one primary election since 2006.”

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