Category Archives: Enumerati

Disdain for GOP Hits New High (or Low)

62%

Of Americans have an unfavorable impression of the Republican party compared to 33% who view the party favorably, according to a new Pew Research survey.

Experts Predicting Record Latino Voter Turnout

13.1 million

Number of Hispanics expected vote nationwide in 2016, compared to 11.2 million in 2012 and 9.7 million in 2008. “Registration among Hispanic voters is skyrocketing in a presidential election cycle dominated by Donald Trump and loud GOP cries to close the border,” The Hill reports.

GOP Voters Overwhelmingly Back Trump’s Muslim Ban

69%

Of GOP voters in Pennsylvania exit polls Tuesday said they support “temporarily banning Muslims who are not U.S. citizens from entering the U.S.” In New York last week, the number was 68 percent. “What was once furious Republican opposition to Donald Trump’s proposal to temporarily ban foreign Muslims from entering the U.S. has turned to virtual silence in the face of widespread GOP voter approval.”

— Byron York, Washington Examiner

Half of Republicans Now Back Trump

50%

Donald Trump has cracked 50% support among GOP voters for the first time, followed by Ted Cruz at 26% and John Kasich at 17%, according to new NBC News/Survey Monkey poll.

Billionaire Spending Big on Youth Vote

$25 million

Amount that Tom Steyer, the billionaire environmentalist who spent millions to help elect Democrats in 2014, is spending to launch a campaign to drive the youth vote in November’s presidential and congressional elections, USA Today reports. “Steyer’s group, NextGen Climate, plans to target students on more than 200 college campuses in seven states that will be election battlegrounds in in November: Pennsylvania, Iowa, Ohio, New Hampshire, Nevada, Illinois and Colorado.”

Election Bodes Ill for GOP

60%

Of Republican voters will support the eventual GOP nominee if their candidate is not chosen, a majority of Donald Trump supporters said they would vote for the businessman if he were to lose the nomination and run as a third-party candidate, according to a new Suffolk University/USA Today poll. Meanwhile, 40% of Republicans whose favored candidate is not nominated said they will vote for the Democratic nominee, seriously consider a third-party candidate, stay home on Election Day in November, or are undecided.

172 Delegates Up for Grabs in GOP Primaries Today

172

Number of Republican delegates up for grabs today, Reuters reports. As we discussed last week, he can’t clinch the nomination tonight. But the most competitive state tonight is Maryland, where Trump has a cozy 20 point lead. That’s the main reason we see Kasich and Ted Cruz trying to play nice with each other in Indiana, Oregon and New Mexico: to deny Trump the requisite 1,237 delegates to clinch the nomination.

Clinton Has Narrow Lead Over Trump in Fall Projection

46% to 43%

Hillary Clinton’s lead over Donald Trump in a general election matchup, with 11% undecided, according to a new GW Battleground Poll. Pollster Ed Goeas: “The Republican Party has a strongly favorable political environment for winning the White House. If a mainstream Republican candidate were the presumptive nominee, the GOP would likely be in a strong position for a lot of wins, top to bottom, in November.”

Sanders Says He’s Behind Because ‘Poor People Don’t Vote’

25

Number of states with the highest levels of income inequality. Of those, 17 have held primaries so far, and Hillary Clinton has won 16 of them, NBC News reports. When asked why he thinks he’s losing in those states, Sen. Bernie Sanders responded: “Well, because poor people don’t vote. I mean, that’s just a fact.”

Two Models Predict Trump Will Reach 1,237

1,285

Number of delegates (or more) Sam Wang predicts Donald Trump will accrue in the remaining GOP primary votes (1,237 are required to win the nomination outright), using two independent methods for estimating the results of the remaining Republican primaries without relying on either demographics or polls. The first is a border-county analysis and the second relies on Google Correlate.