Tag Archives: 2016 GOP Primary


The End of Political Pansies as We Know It

We were getting to be kind of pansies in politics. People used to shoot each other on the Senate floor, you know.

— Jeff Roe, former strategist for Sen. Ted Cruz’s (R-TX) presidential campaign, quoted by the Huffington Post.


Indiana Poll Shows Cruz with Commanding Lead There


Ted Cruz’ lead in the Indiana GOP presidential race, followed by Donald Trump at 29% and John Kasich at 13%, according to a new Mike Downs Center for Indiana Politics poll.

Poetic Justice

The Unavoidable Nominee

We all know by now that Donald Trump is not likeable,
And as a president we suspect he would not be capable.
But one thing’s for sure
As the GOP convention nears —
If there’s one thing Trump is, it’s inevitable.


172 Delegates Up for Grabs in GOP Primaries Today


Number of Republican delegates up for grabs today, Reuters reports. As we discussed last week, he can’t clinch the nomination tonight. But the most competitive state tonight is Maryland, where Trump has a cozy 20 point lead. That’s the main reason we see Kasich and Ted Cruz trying to play nice with each other in Indiana, Oregon and New Mexico: to deny Trump the requisite 1,237 delegates to clinch the nomination.


Why Trump’s “Rigged System” Meme Works

It also helps that Trump’s system-is-rigged message is relatively simple and plays into the media’s master narrative of the Republican race as a conflict between the Republican base and the GOP establishment. The Republicans’ delegate selection rules, by contrast, require an attention to detail that narrative-driven stories about the Republican race can misconstrue.

— Nate Silver, Five Thirty Eight


Trump Leading in California


Donald Trump’s lead in the GOP presidential race in California, followed by Ted Cruz at 23% and John Kasich at 21%, according to a new Capitol Weekly/Sextant Strategies poll. “California is worth 172 delegates when it votes on June 7 — with the winner of each of the state’s 53 congressional districts receiving three delegates. The statewide winner receives 13 delegates. The Capitol Weekly/Sextant Strategies poll shows Trump winning in almost every corner of the state.”


Trump Threatens GOP Leaders with a ‘Rough’ Convention

The Republican National Committee, they’d better get going, because I’ll tell you what: You’re going to have a rough July at that convention. You’d better get going, and you’d better straighten out the system because the people want their vote. The people want their vote, and they want to be represented properly.

— Donald Trump, warning party leaders to reform GOP’s system for selecting a nominee or face a ‘rough July’ when it holds its convention in Cleveland,” the Washington Post reports.


A Denied Trump Will Not Go Quietly Into that Good Night

Moreover, if Republicans think that denying Trump the nomination will solve their problems, they forget that the guy is neither a magnanimous winner nor a gracious loser. Forget about Trump running as an independent in the fall. He won’t have the organization or time to get on the ballot in most states. But, he’s got something more important than ballot access: Twitter and TV. He will be happy to continue his campaign against the GOP via social media. Do we really think that if Trump loses he’ll go underground never to utter his views again? Do you think that if he loses a floor fight he’ll warmly embrace Ted Cruz? I doubt it.

— Amy Walter, Cook Political Report


GOP’s Unfair Primary System Has Helped Trump

Donald Trump has a point … After getting shut out at the Colorado conventions, Trump has been complaining that the Republican primary process is undemocratic and rigged. I don’t agree with the ‘rigged’ part, as the rules have been known for some time, but it’s true that some Republican votes are worth a lot more than others. ‘One person, one vote’ — or the idea that every voter should have equal say in an election — is not the rule in the GOP primary system. The irony, however, is that Trump has benefited from this imbalance.

— Harry Enten, Five Thirty Eight.


Both Trump and Cruz Less Popular than Romney


Of Americans have a favorable view of Donald Trump while 67% are unfavorable — nearly identical to an early March Post-ABC poll which found he would be the most disliked major-party nominee since at least 1984, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll. Ted Cruz fares better with 36% favorable and 53% unfavorable among the public at-large; his strongly unfavorable mark is 20 percentage-points below Trump’s level (33% for Cruz vs. 53% for Trump). Both Trump and Cruz are less popular than Mitt Romney at this point in the 2012 campaign, a year in which the eventual Republican nominee was haunted by weak personal ratings.