Tag Archives: Campaign 2018


Cook: Signs Look Good for a Wave Election in ’18

“Since In­aug­ur­a­tion Day, Pres­id­ent Trump has had the low­est job-ap­prov­al rat­ings of any newly elec­ted pres­id­ent since the first ‘sci­en­tific­ally based’ poll by George Gal­lup in 1936. More than any­thing else, midterm elec­tions are ref­er­enda on the in­cum­bent pres­id­ent. Ob­vi­ously no one knows what is go­ing to hap­pen in next year’s midterm elec­tions, but ana­lysts who have watched con­gres­sion­al elec­tions for a long time are see­ing signs that 2018 could be a wave elec­tion that flips con­trol of the House to Demo­crats.”

Charlie Cook


Many Lawmakers on Dem Target List Voted for rumpcare


Of the 58 Republican lawmakers on the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s target list put out earlier this year, 45 of them voted in favor of the GOP health care bill while just 13 voted against it.


Dems Lead by Nine Points in Generic Ballot


A new CNN/ORC poll finds 50% of American voters would vote for the Democratic candidate for Congress while 41% would choose the Republican candidate if the election were held today. “A lead that large, this far out, is not necessarily predictive, however — although it approaches the edge Democrats held early on in the 2006 election cycle when they won control of the House, it is also similar to their advantage early on in the 2010 cycle, which ended with a Republican takeover of the chamber.”


Dems Have Big Enthusiasm Lead Going Into 2018

63% to 52%

A new Public Policy Polling survey finds “63% of Democrats say they’re ‘very excited’ about voting in the 2018 election, compared to only 52% of Republicans who express that sentiment. When you look at the 2018 House picture just among the voters most excited about turning out next year, the lead for Democrats grows to 19 points at 57-38. Republican leaning voters are comparatively disengaged, with the GOP holding advantages only among voters who are ‘somewhat excited’ (48-40) and ‘not that excited’ (46-31).”


It’s Pay It Forward Time for Ryan — with Campaign Cash

$1.2 million

Speaker Paul Ryan “is distributing $1.2 million from his personal political accounts to roughly half the House Republican Conference today,” according to Playbook.


Cook Predicts Tough Senate Races Through 2018

By a quirk of fate, we may be in for some pretty turbulent Senate elections, not only this November but in 2016 and 2018 as well. Majority status could resemble a rubber band as much as anything else. It is entirely plausible that the Senate will tip back into GOP hands in 2014, return to Democrats in 2016, and then flip again to Republicans in 2018. It’s all about how many — and which — seats on each side are up and exposed to losses, not to mention whether it is a presidential or midterm election.

— Charlie Cook, writing in National Journal.