Tag Archives: Election 2018


Pollster Predicts Dems Win 229 House Seats


Harry Enten: “My best estimate gives the Democrats a 23-seat majority in the House. That means they win 229 seats. However, the margin of error is wide enough that they could end up with 205 seats, short of a majority, or 262 seats, well more than needed for a majority.”


Dems Have Commanding Lead in Generic Congressional Ballot

54% to 41%

A new CNN poll finds Democrats leading Republicans on the generic congressional ballot by 54% to 41% among likely voters. “This is the widest margin of support for Democrats in a midterm cycle since 2006, when at this point, the party held a whopping 21-point lead over Republicans among likely voters. That’s also when Democrats seized control of the House from Republicans, making Nancy Pelosi speaker until 2011.”


Democrats Have Edge in Battleground Districts

50% to 46%

A new Washington Post-Schar School survey of likely voters in 69 battleground House districts across the country narrowly prefer Democratic candidates, 50% to 46%. By way of comparison, in 2016 these same districts favored Republican candidates over Democratic ones by 15 percentage points, 56% to 41%.


A Third of Voters Can’t Name Their Party’s Candidates


A new Reuters/Ipsos poll finds that 34% of registered Republican voters and 32.5% of registered Democratic voters were unable to name their party’s congressional candidate less than five weeks before the midterm election.


Dems’ Generic Lead Narrows

7 points

A new Quinnipiac poll finds Democrats leading Republicans in the generic congressional ballot by seven points, 49% to 42% — a drop from the 12 point lead they had last month. Also interesting: American voters say by a 50% to 43% margin that they want Democrats to control the U.S. Senate.


Bloomberg Group Aiming to Flip 15 House Seats with $5 Million

$5 million

“Everytown for Gun Safety, the group founded by former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, is rolling out a $5 million digital ad campaign targeting 15 House races, as the group continues heavy investment in the midterm elections,” Politico reports.


Democrats Turning Out to Vote — Massively


NBC News: “Republican House primaries produced about 24% more votes than they did in 2014. But Democratic House primaries in 2018 produced 89% more votes than they did four years ago… That’s nearly a doubling in the number Democratic House votes this year and it’s enough to give Democrats a big lead over Republicans in votes this year. In total, 4.3 million more Democrats voted in House primaries this year than Republicans.”


Dems Open Wide Lead for Congress

52% to 40%

A new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll finds Democrats hold a 12-point lead in congressional preference among registered voters, 52% to 40%, with nearly six-in-10 saying they’d like to see significant change in the direction President Trump has been leading the country. Key finding: And by a 42% to 31% margin, voters say their message in November will be for more Democrats to serve as a check and balance to Trump and the congressional Republicans, instead of Republicans who will help Trump and the GOP pass their agenda.” A new Fox News poll shows Democrats leading 49% to 42%.


More than Half of Ever-Trumpers Don’t Think Dems Can Win House


A new Public Opinion Strategies (R) poll finds most voters believe Democrats will win back the House—just not Republican voters. “Fully half of self-identified Republicans don’t believe Democrats are likely to win back the House. And within that group, 57% of people who describe themselves as strong Trump supporters don’t believe Democrats have a chance (37% believe they do).”


Dems Leading in Arizona and Tennessee

7 points

A new CNN poll in Arizona finds Kyrsten Sinema (D) tops Martha McSally (R) by 7 points in the U.S. senate race, 50% to 43% among likely voters. In Tennessee, Phil Bredesen (D) holds a 5-point edge over Marsha Blackburn (R), 50% to 45% among likely voters there. Roughly 1 in 6 voters in each state say there’s a chance they’ll change their mind before Election Day.