Tag Archives: Election 2018

Enumerati

The Midterms Are Looking Dicey for GOP

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“After the latest round of changes, Inside Elections now has 68 Republican seats rated as vulnerable compared to just 10 vulnerable Democratic seats. And there are at least a couple dozen more GOP-held seats that could develop into competitive races in the months ahead. … That discrepancy in the playing field is reminiscent of previous ‘wave’ elections. In April 2010, there were 68 vulnerable Democratic House seats and 11 vulnerable Republican seats. Republicans gained 63 seats later that year.”

Verbatim

The Coming Storm

“It’s hard to believe then that when Republicans lose the House in 2018, maybe by 40 or 50 seats, that House is not going to impeach him. And it’s also hard to believe that a U.S. Senate that’s going to be scared to death, though may still be in Republican hands, is not going to take a serious look when it has to deal with this president. So get good legal help now, because the storm is coming.”

— GOP strategist Alex Castellanos, quoted by The Hill.

Enumerati

Dems Flip 36th Legislative Seat

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Margaret Good (D) won a special election for state representative in Florida’s 72nd district on Tuesday night, beating James Buchanan (R) by 52% to 45%, WWSB-TV reports. The win gives Democrats their 36th legislative flip since President Trump took office. Trump carried the district by a 51% to 46% margin in 2016.

Enumerati

Democrats Targeting 101 Congressional Races

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House Democrats are stepping on the gas, with plans to target 101 Republican-held congressional districts in the midterm elections, NBC News reports.“Democrats are now fielding candidates in all but 12 of the 238 districts held by Republicans… The idea is to expand the map as much as possible and hope to ride the potential wave.”

Enumerati

Majority Say Government Isn’t Doing Enough to Protect Elections

55%

A new NBC News/Survey Monkey poll finds a majority of Americans — 55% — are not confident that the federal government is doing enough to prevent foreign interference in our elections. Additionally, 57% of Americans think it’s likely that Russia will try to influence this year’s midterms.

Verbatim

Democrats Need to Win 2018 Before Worrying About 2020

“If we can’t figure out as a party how to win in 2018, we’re going to be in tough shape for 2020. I think it’s a huge political mistake for Democrats to even be talking about 2020 at this point.”

— Rep. Seth Moulton (D-MA), quoted by the Associated Press.

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The Coming Wave

“In 2016 we made the mistake of rationalizing away the prospect of a Trump victory. He was too unorthodox. He couldn’t possibly sustain momentum through the grueling primary campaign. We should not make same mistake in 2018. Sure, a lot can change between now and next November. And, Democrats have a narrow path to 24 seats – even with a big wave or tailwind. But, do not ignore what’s right in front of us. A wave is building. If I were a Republican running for Congress, I’d be taking that more seriously than ever.”

Amy Walter

Enumerati

Democrats Fielding Record Number of House Challengers

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Brookings: “As of the end of June, 209 Democratic challengers had registered with the FEC and raised at least $5,000. That more than doubled the previous high mark since 2003. In 2009, the Republicans had 78 challengers with at least $5,000. The early GOP challengers in 2009 foreshadowed the party’s regaining majority control. The question is whether the same will hold true for the Democrats in 2018. … The number of challengers at six months is truly remarkable. And the candidates are not simply bunching up in a few primaries. Yes, there is some doubling up: six Democrats have filed so far against John Faso in New York’s 19th congressional district. But there is also a good spread. So far, 105 different Republican incumbents have Democratic challengers with $5,000.”

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GOP Risking 2018 on Trump Play

“Scandals have typically operated as a cloud over a president’s agenda. But the Russia-related legal challenges swirling around President Trump are functioning more like a cloak for his joint agenda with congressional Republicans. That difference captures the GOP’s decision to govern in a manner aimed almost entirely at stoking their hard-core base—a critical calculation that could determine their fate in the 2018 election, and possibly the 2020 contest, as well.”

Ron Brownstein

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GOP Lawmaker Says Trump Is Hurting Her Re-Election Prospects

“It’s basically being taken out on me. Any Republican member of Congress, you are going down with the ship. And we’re going to hand the gavel to Pelosi in 2018, they only need 28 seats and the path to that gavel being handed over is through my seat. And right now, it doesn’t matter that it’s me, it doesn’t matter what I’ve done. I have an ‘R’ next to my name and right now, this environment would have me not prevail.”

— Rep. Martha McSally (R-AZ), expressing some concerns about re-election in a secret recording, the Tucson Weekly reports. “Team McSally has been poo-pooing recent polls showing that more than half of the voters in her district disapprove of her job performance, while her approval has fallen down to the mid-30s, percentage-wise, and that she was losing to a generic Democrat by 7 percentage points. But last week, in a private talk to the Arizona Bankers Association, McSally conceded that in the current political environment, she has some real challenges in next year’s election.”