Tag Archives: Election 2018

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Pollster Predicts Dems Win 229 House Seats

229

Harry Enten: “My best estimate gives the Democrats a 23-seat majority in the House. That means they win 229 seats. However, the margin of error is wide enough that they could end up with 205 seats, short of a majority, or 262 seats, well more than needed for a majority.”

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Dems Have Commanding Lead in Generic Congressional Ballot

54% to 41%

A new CNN poll finds Democrats leading Republicans on the generic congressional ballot by 54% to 41% among likely voters. “This is the widest margin of support for Democrats in a midterm cycle since 2006, when at this point, the party held a whopping 21-point lead over Republicans among likely voters. That’s also when Democrats seized control of the House from Republicans, making Nancy Pelosi speaker until 2011.”

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Democrats Have Edge in Battleground Districts

50% to 46%

A new Washington Post-Schar School survey of likely voters in 69 battleground House districts across the country narrowly prefer Democratic candidates, 50% to 46%. By way of comparison, in 2016 these same districts favored Republican candidates over Democratic ones by 15 percentage points, 56% to 41%.

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A Third of Voters Can’t Name Their Party’s Candidates

One-Third

A new Reuters/Ipsos poll finds that 34% of registered Republican voters and 32.5% of registered Democratic voters were unable to name their party’s congressional candidate less than five weeks before the midterm election.

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Dems’ Generic Lead Narrows

7 points

A new Quinnipiac poll finds Democrats leading Republicans in the generic congressional ballot by seven points, 49% to 42% — a drop from the 12 point lead they had last month. Also interesting: American voters say by a 50% to 43% margin that they want Democrats to control the U.S. Senate.

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Bloomberg Group Aiming to Flip 15 House Seats with $5 Million

$5 million

“Everytown for Gun Safety, the group founded by former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, is rolling out a $5 million digital ad campaign targeting 15 House races, as the group continues heavy investment in the midterm elections,” Politico reports.

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Democrats Turning Out to Vote — Massively

89%

NBC News: “Republican House primaries produced about 24% more votes than they did in 2014. But Democratic House primaries in 2018 produced 89% more votes than they did four years ago… That’s nearly a doubling in the number Democratic House votes this year and it’s enough to give Democrats a big lead over Republicans in votes this year. In total, 4.3 million more Democrats voted in House primaries this year than Republicans.”

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Dems Open Wide Lead for Congress

52% to 40%

A new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll finds Democrats hold a 12-point lead in congressional preference among registered voters, 52% to 40%, with nearly six-in-10 saying they’d like to see significant change in the direction President Trump has been leading the country. Key finding: And by a 42% to 31% margin, voters say their message in November will be for more Democrats to serve as a check and balance to Trump and the congressional Republicans, instead of Republicans who will help Trump and the GOP pass their agenda.” A new Fox News poll shows Democrats leading 49% to 42%.

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More than Half of Ever-Trumpers Don’t Think Dems Can Win House

57%

A new Public Opinion Strategies (R) poll finds most voters believe Democrats will win back the House—just not Republican voters. “Fully half of self-identified Republicans don’t believe Democrats are likely to win back the House. And within that group, 57% of people who describe themselves as strong Trump supporters don’t believe Democrats have a chance (37% believe they do).”

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Dems Leading in Arizona and Tennessee

7 points

A new CNN poll in Arizona finds Kyrsten Sinema (D) tops Martha McSally (R) by 7 points in the U.S. senate race, 50% to 43% among likely voters. In Tennessee, Phil Bredesen (D) holds a 5-point edge over Marsha Blackburn (R), 50% to 45% among likely voters there. Roughly 1 in 6 voters in each state say there’s a chance they’ll change their mind before Election Day.