Tag Archives: Nate Silver


Silver: Beto O’Rourke Best Bet for VP Pick


Nate Silver thinks Beto O’Rourke has the best shot at being someone’s running mate on the 2020 Democratic ticket. “Here’s why: 1) There’s about a 55 percent chance (per Betfair) that the nominee will not be a white dude. 2) If the nominee is not a white dude, the VP probably will be a white dude. 3) The other white dudes are too old (Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders) or would cost Democrats a Senate seat (Sherrod Brown). Hence, Beto.”


Victory Was Just 2 Percent Away


Nate Silver: “What would have happened if just 1 out of every 100 voters shifted from Trump to Clinton? That would have produced a net shift of 2 percentage points in Clinton’s direction. … Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Florida flip back to Clinton, giving her a total of 307 electoral votes. And she’d have won the popular vote by 3 to 4 percentage points, right where the final national polls had the race and in line with Obama’s margin of victory in 2012.”


It’s No Time for Complacency, Democrats

At some point, complacency could become an issue, although it’s probably too early to worry about that. In the nearer term, I’d be worried that the race has been so volatile. Sure, things look good now. But conditions in May, and then again in July, produced a close race. Is there anything inherently preventing those conditions from arising again? I suppose I’d wonder about what Wikileaks has up its sleeve and what sort of geopolitical events could work in Trump’s favor.

Nate Silver


Silver Predicting a Clinton Win


The percentage chance that FiveThirtyEight’s latest forecast gives Hillary Clinton to win the election.


Trump’s Actual Support Overall Is About 8%


Actual percentage of voters in the U.S. electorate who support Donald Trump, according to Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com. “Right now, [Trump] has 25 to 30% of the vote in polls among the roughly 25% of Americans who identify as Republican,” Silver writes. “That’s something like 6 to 8 percent of the electorate overall, or about the same share of people who think the Apollo moon landings were faked.”


Trump Leads in Polls, but Not Popularity

Despite what you may have read elsewhere — or heard from the man himself — Donald Trump is not all that popular with Republican voters. Sure, he’s in first place in many polls. But Trump is near the back of the pack by another important measure… Trump’s favorability ratings among Republicans are barely better than break-even: 47 percent favorable and 43 percent unfavorable. Among the 17 Republican candidates, Trump’s net favorable rating, +4, ranks 13th, ahead of only Chris Christie, Jim Gilmore, Lindsey Graham and George Pataki. … And yet, in these same polls, Trump is the first choice of an average of 20 percent of Republican voters — the highest in the field, ahead of Scott Walker (14 percent) and Jeb Bush (12 percent).

— Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.


Silver Mocks Campaign Media Coverage

I’ll bet $5.38 that if Clinton eventually loses, the first scene from Game Change III is set in a Chipotle.

— Nate Silver, when asked about the impact of candidates’ food choices in a Q&A on Facebook.

News & Comment

How the GOP’s ‘Five-Ring Circus’ Is Shaping Up


This from Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight: “The chart is an oversimplification, but it recognizes the GOP’s dynamics are more complex than a simple left-right spectrum would imply. Some wings overlap more with others. For instance, a candidate could easily have a lot of appeal to both tea party and libertarian voters. But it’s unlikely that one candidate would simultaneously be the choice of both Christian conservatives and moderate voters.”


Jeb Bush a Solid Moderate Republican


Jeb Bush’s ideological score based on a combination of three statistical indices created by Nate Silver. Bush’s score is “similar to Romney and McCain, each of whom scored a 39. He’s much more conservative than Huntsman, who rates at a 17. Still, Bush is more like his father, George H.W. Bush, who rates as a 33, than his brother George W. Bush, who scores a 46. And the Republican Party has moved to the right since both Poppy and Dubya were elected.”


Polls Skewed Toward Democrats

4 percentage points

Amount the average Senate poll conducted in the final three weeks of this year’s campaign overestimated the Democrat’s performance, according to Nate Silver. The average gubernatorial poll was just as bad, also overestimating the Democrat’s performance by 4 points.