Tag Archives: Polls


GOP Prez Race Tightens Nationally


Donald Trump’s lead over the GOP presidential field nationally, followed closely by Ted Cruz at 27%, John Kasich at 22% and Marco Rubio at 20%, according to a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll. Also interesting is that Trump trails his rivals in hypothetical one-on-one match-ups: Cruz and Kasich best Trump by an identical 17 points, 57% to 40%, while Rubio beats Trump by 13 points, 56% to 43%.


Trump Falls Behind Cruz Nationally


Ted Cruz’ lead in the national GOP horserace, followed by Trump at 26%, Marco Rubio at 17%, John Kasich at 11%, Ben Carson at 10% and Jeb Bush at 4%, according to a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll. Said pollster Bill McInturff: “When you see a number this different, it means you might be right on top of a shift in the campaign. What you don’t know yet is if the change is going to take place or if it is a momentary ‘pause’ before the numbers snap back into place. So, one poll post-Saturday debate can only reflect there may have been a ‘pause’ as Republican voters take another look at Trump. This happened earlier this summer and he bounced back stronger.”


Trump Holds Largest National Margin Yet


Donald Trump’s lead over the GOP pack nationally — his highest total so far — followed by Marco Rubio at 19%, Ted Cruz at 18%, John Kasich at 6%, Jeb Bush at 4% and Ben Carson at 4%, according to a new Quinnipiac poll. Said pollster Tim Malloy: “Reports of Donald Trump’s imminent demise as a candidate are clearly and greatly exaggerated. Like a freight train barreling through signals with his horn on full blast, Trump heads down the track towards a possible nomination.” In the Democratic race, Hillary Clinton is just ahead of Bernie Sanders, 44% to 42%.


Trump, Clinton Still Lead Nationally


Donald Trump’s lead over the GOP field nationally, followed by Ted Cruz at 20%, Marco Rubio at 17%, Ben Carson at 7%, according to aAnew NBC News/SurveyMonkey tracking poll. Key finding: “While Trump still leads by 15 percentage points, his support has dropped in the past week as Rubio has risen 5 points. The remainder of the field has been relatively stagnant.” In the Democratic race, Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders, 51% to 39%.


The Pollsters Got It Half Right

FiveThirtyEight gave Donald Trump a 46% chance of winning in Iowa and Hillary Clinton a 67% chance. PredictWise gave Trump a 68% chance and Clinton a 73% chance. Bing Predicts also picked Trump and Clinton.


For Trump, Media Coverage Equals Poll Points, Not Favorability


Share of all December Republican race media coverage Donald Trump has garnered — even higher than his long-term average of 54 percent, Reports FiveThirtyEight‘s Nate Silver. “According to the regression, that extra media coverage is worth about 8 percentage points in the polls: almost exactly how much Trump has gained in national polls since the month began and enough to put him in the mid-30s in the polling average instead of the high 20s.” Silver notes: “The interesting thing, as we’ve pointed out before, is that a candidate can potentially gain in the polls in the short term by increasing his media coverage, even if he potentially hurts his favorability rating. Trump seems to realize this.”


Trump Continues to Widen Lead, Bush Recedes


A new CNN/ORC poll finds Donald Trump alone at the top of the Republican field with 36%, followed by Ted Cruz at 16%, Ben Carson at 14% and Marco Rubio at 12%. All other candidates have the support of less than 5% of GOP voters in the race for the Republican Party’s nomination for president. Jeb Bush is at just 3%. Key finding: “Trump is supported by 46% of Republicans without a college degree, compared to 12% for Cruz, 11% for Carson and 8% for Rubio.”


Trump’s Actual Support Overall Is About 8%


Actual percentage of voters in the U.S. electorate who support Donald Trump, according to Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com. “Right now, [Trump] has 25 to 30% of the vote in polls among the roughly 25% of Americans who identify as Republican,” Silver writes. “That’s something like 6 to 8 percent of the electorate overall, or about the same share of people who think the Apollo moon landings were faked.”


Trump Still Holds Huge Lead


Donald Trump’s lead in the GOP presidential race, followed by Ben Carson at 12%, Jeb Bush at 11%, Carly Fiorina at 6%, Ted Cruz at 5% and Marco Rubio at 5%, according to a new Morning Consult poll. On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton for the first time has fallen below the 50% mark. She maintains a strong lead over Sen. Bernie Sanders — 49% to 28% — though her 21-point lead is at its lowest point since Morning Consult began surveying the Democratic field.


Clinton Has Worse Honesty Ratings than Trump in Three Key States


Number of key states where Hillary Clinton has worse honesty ratings than Donald Trump, with just 32% each finding her honest and trustworthy in Florida and Pennsylvania, and 34% in Ohio, according to a new Quinnipiac poll.