Tag Archives: Polls

Enumerati

GOP Prez Race Tightens Nationally

30%

Donald Trump’s lead over the GOP presidential field nationally, followed closely by Ted Cruz at 27%, John Kasich at 22% and Marco Rubio at 20%, according to a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll. Also interesting is that Trump trails his rivals in hypothetical one-on-one match-ups: Cruz and Kasich best Trump by an identical 17 points, 57% to 40%, while Rubio beats Trump by 13 points, 56% to 43%.

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Trump Falls Behind Cruz Nationally

28%

Ted Cruz’ lead in the national GOP horserace, followed by Trump at 26%, Marco Rubio at 17%, John Kasich at 11%, Ben Carson at 10% and Jeb Bush at 4%, according to a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll. Said pollster Bill McInturff: “When you see a number this different, it means you might be right on top of a shift in the campaign. What you don’t know yet is if the change is going to take place or if it is a momentary ‘pause’ before the numbers snap back into place. So, one poll post-Saturday debate can only reflect there may have been a ‘pause’ as Republican voters take another look at Trump. This happened earlier this summer and he bounced back stronger.”

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Trump Holds Largest National Margin Yet

39%

Donald Trump’s lead over the GOP pack nationally — his highest total so far — followed by Marco Rubio at 19%, Ted Cruz at 18%, John Kasich at 6%, Jeb Bush at 4% and Ben Carson at 4%, according to a new Quinnipiac poll. Said pollster Tim Malloy: “Reports of Donald Trump’s imminent demise as a candidate are clearly and greatly exaggerated. Like a freight train barreling through signals with his horn on full blast, Trump heads down the track towards a possible nomination.” In the Democratic race, Hillary Clinton is just ahead of Bernie Sanders, 44% to 42%.

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Trump, Clinton Still Lead Nationally

35%

Donald Trump’s lead over the GOP field nationally, followed by Ted Cruz at 20%, Marco Rubio at 17%, Ben Carson at 7%, according to aAnew NBC News/SurveyMonkey tracking poll. Key finding: “While Trump still leads by 15 percentage points, his support has dropped in the past week as Rubio has risen 5 points. The remainder of the field has been relatively stagnant.” In the Democratic race, Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders, 51% to 39%.

Verbatim

The Pollsters Got It Half Right

FiveThirtyEight gave Donald Trump a 46% chance of winning in Iowa and Hillary Clinton a 67% chance. PredictWise gave Trump a 68% chance and Clinton a 73% chance. Bing Predicts also picked Trump and Clinton.

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For Trump, Media Coverage Equals Poll Points, Not Favorability

70%

Share of all December Republican race media coverage Donald Trump has garnered — even higher than his long-term average of 54 percent, Reports FiveThirtyEight‘s Nate Silver. “According to the regression, that extra media coverage is worth about 8 percentage points in the polls: almost exactly how much Trump has gained in national polls since the month began and enough to put him in the mid-30s in the polling average instead of the high 20s.” Silver notes: “The interesting thing, as we’ve pointed out before, is that a candidate can potentially gain in the polls in the short term by increasing his media coverage, even if he potentially hurts his favorability rating. Trump seems to realize this.”

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Trump Continues to Widen Lead, Bush Recedes

36%

A new CNN/ORC poll finds Donald Trump alone at the top of the Republican field with 36%, followed by Ted Cruz at 16%, Ben Carson at 14% and Marco Rubio at 12%. All other candidates have the support of less than 5% of GOP voters in the race for the Republican Party’s nomination for president. Jeb Bush is at just 3%. Key finding: “Trump is supported by 46% of Republicans without a college degree, compared to 12% for Cruz, 11% for Carson and 8% for Rubio.”

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Trump’s Actual Support Overall Is About 8%

8%

Actual percentage of voters in the U.S. electorate who support Donald Trump, according to Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com. “Right now, [Trump] has 25 to 30% of the vote in polls among the roughly 25% of Americans who identify as Republican,” Silver writes. “That’s something like 6 to 8 percent of the electorate overall, or about the same share of people who think the Apollo moon landings were faked.”

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Trump Still Holds Huge Lead

32%

Donald Trump’s lead in the GOP presidential race, followed by Ben Carson at 12%, Jeb Bush at 11%, Carly Fiorina at 6%, Ted Cruz at 5% and Marco Rubio at 5%, according to a new Morning Consult poll. On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton for the first time has fallen below the 50% mark. She maintains a strong lead over Sen. Bernie Sanders — 49% to 28% — though her 21-point lead is at its lowest point since Morning Consult began surveying the Democratic field.

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Clinton Has Worse Honesty Ratings than Trump in Three Key States

3

Number of key states where Hillary Clinton has worse honesty ratings than Donald Trump, with just 32% each finding her honest and trustworthy in Florida and Pennsylvania, and 34% in Ohio, according to a new Quinnipiac poll.