Tag Archives: Polls

Verbatim

The Pollsters Got It Half Right

FiveThirtyEight gave Donald Trump a 46% chance of winning in Iowa and Hillary Clinton a 67% chance. PredictWise gave Trump a 68% chance and Clinton a 73% chance. Bing Predicts also picked Trump and Clinton.

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For Trump, Media Coverage Equals Poll Points, Not Favorability

70%

Share of all December Republican race media coverage Donald Trump has garnered — even higher than his long-term average of 54 percent, Reports FiveThirtyEight‘s Nate Silver. “According to the regression, that extra media coverage is worth about 8 percentage points in the polls: almost exactly how much Trump has gained in national polls since the month began and enough to put him in the mid-30s in the polling average instead of the high 20s.” Silver notes: “The interesting thing, as we’ve pointed out before, is that a candidate can potentially gain in the polls in the short term by increasing his media coverage, even if he potentially hurts his favorability rating. Trump seems to realize this.”

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Trump Continues to Widen Lead, Bush Recedes

36%

A new CNN/ORC poll finds Donald Trump alone at the top of the Republican field with 36%, followed by Ted Cruz at 16%, Ben Carson at 14% and Marco Rubio at 12%. All other candidates have the support of less than 5% of GOP voters in the race for the Republican Party’s nomination for president. Jeb Bush is at just 3%. Key finding: “Trump is supported by 46% of Republicans without a college degree, compared to 12% for Cruz, 11% for Carson and 8% for Rubio.”

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Trump’s Actual Support Overall Is About 8%

8%

Actual percentage of voters in the U.S. electorate who support Donald Trump, according to Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com. “Right now, [Trump] has 25 to 30% of the vote in polls among the roughly 25% of Americans who identify as Republican,” Silver writes. “That’s something like 6 to 8 percent of the electorate overall, or about the same share of people who think the Apollo moon landings were faked.”

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Trump Still Holds Huge Lead

32%

Donald Trump’s lead in the GOP presidential race, followed by Ben Carson at 12%, Jeb Bush at 11%, Carly Fiorina at 6%, Ted Cruz at 5% and Marco Rubio at 5%, according to a new Morning Consult poll. On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton for the first time has fallen below the 50% mark. She maintains a strong lead over Sen. Bernie Sanders — 49% to 28% — though her 21-point lead is at its lowest point since Morning Consult began surveying the Democratic field.

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Clinton Has Worse Honesty Ratings than Trump in Three Key States

3

Number of key states where Hillary Clinton has worse honesty ratings than Donald Trump, with just 32% each finding her honest and trustworthy in Florida and Pennsylvania, and 34% in Ohio, according to a new Quinnipiac poll.

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Trump’s Lead Widens

24%

Donald Trump’s lead over the GOP presidential race, followed by Jeb Bush at 13%, Ben Carson at 9%, Marco Rubio at 8%, Scott Walker at 8%, Rand Paul at 6%, Ted Cruz at 5%, Carly Fiorina at 5%, John Kasich at 5% and Mike Huckabee at 4%, a new CNN/ORC poll finds. Key finding: “Trump is the biggest gainer in the poll, up 6 points since July according to the first nationwide CNN/ORC poll since the top candidates debated in Cleveland on Aug. 6. Carson gained 5 points and Fiorina 4 points.”

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Trump Widens Lead Over GOP Field

26%

Donald Trump’s national lead over the GOP field — a more than 2-to-1 advantage over his nearest Republican rivals — Jeb Bush at 12% and Scott Walker at 11%, according to a new Monmouth poll, which is one of the polls that will be used to determine which candidates join Thursday’s debate.

Verbatim

Paul Attributes Trump’s Rise in Polls to ‘Loss of Sanity’

I think this is a temporary sort of loss of sanity, but we’re going to come back to our senses and look for someone serious to lead the country at some point.

— Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) is attributing GOP presidential rival Donald Trump’s rise in the polls to a momentary “loss of sanity,” The Hill reports.

Verbatim

Trump Leads in Polls, but Not Popularity

Despite what you may have read elsewhere — or heard from the man himself — Donald Trump is not all that popular with Republican voters. Sure, he’s in first place in many polls. But Trump is near the back of the pack by another important measure… Trump’s favorability ratings among Republicans are barely better than break-even: 47 percent favorable and 43 percent unfavorable. Among the 17 Republican candidates, Trump’s net favorable rating, +4, ranks 13th, ahead of only Chris Christie, Jim Gilmore, Lindsey Graham and George Pataki. … And yet, in these same polls, Trump is the first choice of an average of 20 percent of Republican voters — the highest in the field, ahead of Scott Walker (14 percent) and Jeb Bush (12 percent).

— Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.