Tag Archives: Predictions

Enumerati

Pollster Predicts Dems Win 229 House Seats

229

Harry Enten: “My best estimate gives the Democrats a 23-seat majority in the House. That means they win 229 seats. However, the margin of error is wide enough that they could end up with 205 seats, short of a majority, or 262 seats, well more than needed for a majority.”

Verbatim

Moody’s Predicts Democratic Whitehouse Win

“The Moody’s Analytics presidential election model has accurately predicted every presidential election since 1980. And it indicates a Democrat will win in 2016,” Yahoo News reports. “Moody’s newly released analysis for the next election, titled “A Nail-Biter in 2016,” predicts that the Democratic nominee for president will win with exactly 270 votes from the U.S. Electoral College — the minimum amount required to win. Meanwhile, the Republican nominee is forecast to earn 268 votes.”

Verbatim

The Odds Are Really Long that Hillary Clinton Will Win in 2016

When it comes to making predictions about 2016, there are lots of important numbers to follow. The unemployment rate. Consumer confidence. The president’s approval rating. The horse race polls. But, in my mind, the most important data point to follow is the one which measures Americans’ desire to stay the current course or try a different one in 2016. … History tells us that the odds of a Clinton presidency are long. In the modern era (well, really since Andrew Jackson in 1836), no Democrat has succeeded a 2-term Democratic president.

— Amy Walter, writing for the Cook Political Report.

News & Comment

You, Too, Can Predict the Election Outcome

Political scientists believe you can get a pretty good prediction for a presidential candidate’s election chances based on just three pieces of data.

According to Ezra Klein of the Washington Post:

The final model uses just three pieces of information that have been found to be particularly predictive: economic growth in the year of the election, as measured by the change in gross domestic product during the first three quarters; the president’s approval rating in June; and whether one of the candidates is the incumbent.

That may seem a bit thin. But it calls 12 of the past 16 elections right. The average error in its prediction of the two-party vote share is less than three percentage points.

I used the new economic figures released yesterday (2.3%) and Obama’s latest approval rating from Gallup (50%), and the thing calculated that the incumbent wins 89.5 percent of the time when the economy is growing a 2.2 percent and his approval rating is 50 percent.

So go here, fiddle around with the data and start predicting.