Tag Archives: wave election

Enumerati

Trump’s Approval Rating Predicts GOP House Seat Losses

40

Based on the historical relationship between a president’s approval rate and the number of House seats his party loses in the midterm election, Charles Franklin finds that President Trump’s current 38.5% approval rate suggests that Republicans will lose almost 40 seats this November.

Verbatim

Cook: Signs Look Good for a Wave Election in ’18

“Since In­aug­ur­a­tion Day, Pres­id­ent Trump has had the low­est job-ap­prov­al rat­ings of any newly elec­ted pres­id­ent since the first ‘sci­en­tific­ally based’ poll by George Gal­lup in 1936. More than any­thing else, midterm elec­tions are ref­er­enda on the in­cum­bent pres­id­ent. Ob­vi­ously no one knows what is go­ing to hap­pen in next year’s midterm elec­tions, but ana­lysts who have watched con­gres­sion­al elec­tions for a long time are see­ing signs that 2018 could be a wave elec­tion that flips con­trol of the House to Demo­crats.”

Charlie Cook